He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.

Quote of the Week 16

“He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.”

― Ray Dalio

A variation of:

“He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass.”

― Edgar Fiedler

Triggered by the promotion for Dalio's new book "How Countries Go Broke ― The Big Cycle".

Here's what X/Grok comments:

Who Said It?

The quote "He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass" is most commonly attributed to Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, a prominent hedge fund. However, a similar version, "He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass," is attributed to economist Edgar R. Fiedler. The Dalio version is more widely circulated in modern contexts, particularly in finance and investing circles.

When and in Which Context?

The exact origin date of Dalio’s quote is unclear, as it appears in various sources without a definitive first publication. It gained prominence through Dalio’s public writings and interviews, likely in the 2000s or later, tied to his discussions on market predictions and risk management. For example, it’s referenced in financial commentary around 2016–2023, often in the context of warning against over-reliance on economic or market forecasts.

Fiedler’s version predates Dalio’s, appearing in economic discussions as early as the 1970s or 1980s, often humorously critiquing economists who make bold predictions. The context for both is similar: the uncertainty of forecasting in complex systems like markets or economies. Dalio likely adapted or independently coined a variation, given his focus on principles for navigating uncertainty.

Dalio’s use often ties to his investment philosophy, emphasizing adaptability and humility over dogmatic predictions.